How to avoid the most common mistakes in betting
How important is the bookmaker you choose?
What impact do cognitive biases have on bettors?
While
Betting Resources aims to educate bettors about everything from the
basics of betting to predictive models, some bettors still fall into the
common traps that inhibit success. This article provides a basic
explanation of the common mistakes bettors make and how to avoid them.
Read on to learn more.
Failing to understand the concept of value
Value
isn’t as simple as finding a soccer team on a winning streak that is
priced at high odds against a team that has lost a few games in a row.
Value is about understanding what betting odds represent,
calculating your own probability estimation, converting it into odds
and then looking for discrepancies in what you believe the odds should
be and what the bookmaker believes.
One of the most common misconceptions in betting is that good bettors don’t lose. This simply isn’t true. Good bettors lose less often than they win
Bettors
often make a mistake when determining what value is. It isn’t an
opinion but rather the use of information, data, models (like expected goals) and historical results (handicap performance being one example) to form a more accurate prediction than the one provided by the bookmaker.
Once you know what value is, you can begin to calculate expected value for
any bet you place - this is essentially a calculation that will tell
you how much you can expect to win or lose if you were to place the same
bet multiple times over.
Not choosing the right bookmaker
Bettors
are given an endless supply of bookmakers they can choose from. Just
like any other industry, there are different approaches to bookmaking
and everyone will claim to be the best. However, it doesn’t take much to
analyse your options and discover that some bookmakers offer a lot more
than others.
Most
bookmakers give away free bets and bonuses that appear to offer value.
What a lot of bettors don’t know is that in order to provide these
offers, bookmakers will increase their margins - something that ultimately impacts the odds you bet with.
While
these kinds of bookmakers lure customers in with expensive marketing
campaigns and false promises, they also don’t let bettors win. If you
make a consistent profit betting with the kind of bookmaker that offers
you free bets, your limits will be severely limited or your account will
be completely closed.
Choosing
a bookmaker because they offer you a free bet is a mistake bettors
simply cannot afford to make - especially when Pinnacle offers the best value odds, lets you bet however much you want and doesn’t ban or restrict winners.
Not using a staking method
If
you want to make a profit from betting you need to have an advantage
over the bookmaker (this is referred to as an “edge”). An example of
having an edge would be knowledge of team news in a soccer match,
changes in the weather in an NFL game or any other potential influence
on the outcome of a match that the bookmaker is unaware of.
Staking method
Method
of calculating the appropriate amount of money to place on a bet for
consistent profit making as part of a betting strategy.
Regardless of where your edge comes from it is made redundant if you don’t manage your money correctly. The use of staking methods is essential if you want to make money from betting and failing to do so is a mistake that can cost bettors dearly.
If
you don’t manage your money when betting, you won’t have any money left
to bet - it’s as simple as that. There’s nothing wrong with an “all in”
approach, as long as you know not to expect it to result in consistent
profits.
Not being aware of cognitive biases
It
is natural to assume we control our thoughts and actions but those who
are interested in psychology and behavioural economics will know there
are certain “biases” that cause humans to deviate from what we would
class as rational judgements.
Confirmation bias is
one such bias that can be applied to betting - this is effectively
being drawn to evidence that suggests the bet you are making is right
whilst disregarding evidence that proves otherwise.
The use of staking methods is essential if you want to make money from betting and failing to do so is a mistake that can cost bettors dearly.
Anchoring
is another bias that bettors may not be aware of. Anchoring, also known
as focalism is the tendency to rely on the first piece of information
offered - this could be very detrimental in betting as things can
dramatically change in a short period of time.
This
lack of objective thinking and logical reasoning can cloud judgement
and lead to betting decisions that are based on opinion as opposed to
critical thinking. Bettors may not be able to control cognitive biases
but one of the biggest mistakes to make is failing to acknowledge them.
Being too concerned about losses
Loss
aversion - a preference for avoiding losses instead of acquiring
potential gains - is also prevalent in betting and is another cognitive
bias that many bettors aren’t aware of.
One
of the most common misconceptions in betting is that good bettors don’t
lose. This simply isn’t true. Good bettors lose less often than they
win and if they lose, they will use a staking method to ensure they
don’t lose all of their bankroll.
The presence of randomness and luck in sports betting means
even the most sophisticated models can sometimes be wrong. Thinking
that you need to avoid losses at all costs is one mistake that bettors
should certainly avoid.
Betting because it’s convenient
Even
if bettors know what to do in order to succeed and avoid the common
mistakes mentioned above, the element of convenience can still undo a
lot of hard work.
Of
course, for those who bet for entertainment purposes, betting out of
convenience doesn’t matter but if the aim is to make a profit, you
should only bet when the time is right (when you have an edge and
positive expected value).
The increase in popularity of curated bets, online
betting and the emergence of mobile betting apps has made the process
of placing a bet much easier than ever before and bettors who want to
make money cannot afford to bet because it’s convenient.
Instead
of betting on a soccer match because it’s on TV or an NFL game because
your bookmaker has sent an app notification saying that they’ve
increased the odds, stick to what you know, stay disciplined and
remember you’re betting for long-term success, not short-term profit.
